I am alarmed by how often Russian aviation bombs this area with FABs, UMPKs, and RBK-500 cluster missiles, as well as unguided aircraft missiles. I have compiled a video of the strikes posted over the last 2-4 days.
Russian attacks occur from time to time — they recently captured a small area southeast of Urozhainy. The 34th and 60th Motorized Rifle Brigades, units of the 14th Special Forces Brigade, as well as the 5th Tank Brigade of the Vostok group are involved in the attack. Judging by the footage from the ground, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are defending themselves quite confidently, destroying a lot of equipment.
On the Ukrainian side, the 58th Motorized Rifle Brigade, the 21st National Guard Brigade, as well as the 128th Territorial Defense Brigade and a unit of the third mechanized battalion of the Presidential Brigade are operating here. I would assess the forces as approximately equal, adjusting for the advantage of the Ukrainians in defense.
Probably, there would be no need to worry too much about this part of the front; however, the regular bombings hint at possible preparations for active operations. I suspect that in this way Russian aviation is trying to wear down the Ukrainian military.
Velyka Novosilka itself plays a certain logistical role for this part of the front and can be considered a target. Therefore, I will assume that Russian troops will want to repeat the maneuver of the AFU in the summer of 2023: moving from village to village along the river on both sides. Due to the lack of equipment and the prevailing tactics of frontal assaults, such chains of settlements, moving from one to another, provide profitable routes for Russian units. They don't need open spaces and clean roads. It is much more convenient for them to move from ruin to ruin, from trench to trench.
Theoretically, this can be done further - right up to the important transverse highway N15 from Kurakhove to Zaporizhzhia. However, the distance to it is 28 kilometers. This is more than the entire captured territory from Avdiivka to the salient in Ocheretyne (25 km) and the distance from the current front in Orikhovo-Vasylivka to Kramatorsk (24 km). Obviously, the Russian military will not be able to overcome such a distance quickly.
But they can move gradually, making the threat of an attack on the highway increasingly real, which will force the AFU to expend more forces on the defense of this area. Or the Russian military is using the same tactics of seizing populated areas on a broad front, gradually taking away land from the AFU. In any case, I suspect that in the next month or two, we will see active Russian forces in the area of Staromaiorsky and Urozhayny. It's worth watching closely.
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