Annotation: This analytical report examines the factors that could significantly influence the ongoing combat operations in Ukraine, particularly focusing on the Ukrainian Defense Forces (UDF) and the Russian occupation forces (ROE). The report identifies key factors such as artillery parity and countering tactical aviation, discussing their potential impact on the situation in the combat zone. By analyzing these factors, the report aims to provide insights into the dynamics of the conflict and potential future developments.
Factors that may affect the course of combat operations in Ukraine
The current situation for the Ukrainian Defense Forces (UDF) in the combat zone is not the best. The partners that showed stable and comprehensive support during 2022 and 2023 (the US) have now gone into their internal anabiosis. In turn, Europe can support Ukraine at the level of defense actions, but for the level of counter-offensive and liberation of its territories, it is still out of the military-industrial complex with its capabilities.
In the context of these events and the formation of a further strategy of action, questions repeatedly arise as to what can dramatically affect the situation in the combat zone in Ukraine so that the Russian occupation forces (ROE) lose not only the ability to initiate offensive actions, but also in principle - the retention of the captured territories.
In general, there are at least four factors that can dramatically affect this, but mostly in an integrated way rather than individually.
Factor one is artillery parity.
Artillery continues to play an important role in both offensive and defensive operations on both sides. And, unfortunately, the Russian artillery component, despite the shortage of ammunition (in February-March 2022 it fired 70-80 thousand rounds per day, in March-April 2024 it fired 10 thousand rounds per day), has a superiority of 10 to 1/2 compared to Ukrainian firing capabilities.
Yes, Russia's capabilities, even with support from North Korea and Iran have dropped by a factor of almost 8 in the third year, but the Ukrainian forces' capabilities have also dropped by the same amount. Only restoring parity in the number of shots fired can change this situation in Ukraine's favor and here is why.
First, there are high hopes for the Czech initiative of 800 thousand shells of 155-mm and 122-mm caliber. What is 800 thousand shells? It is 5 thousand rounds for six months. But, it should be understood that in addition to 155-mm and 122-mm, 152-mm, 125-mm, 120-mm, 115-mm, 105-mm, etc. are used by the JMA. That is, we can talk about the prospect of approximate parity in quantity 1 to 2 or more.
Second is quality. The quality, namely, accuracy and range, of 155-mm ammunition is much higher than the Soviet model of 152-mm ammunition. That is, where 10-15 152-mm projectiles are used to hit an object, 2-3 155-mm caliber ammunition is enough, and sometimes only one. It is for this reason that Azerbaijan, which used to rely on Soviet caliber barrel artillery, is switching to 155mm in cooperation with Turkish companies REPKON, MKE and ASFAT.
Thus, bringing the proportion to a 1-to-2 and virtually 1-to-1 ratio will be an extremely sensitive factor for the ROE, significantly limiting their offensive actions through superior manpower and mechanized components.
The second factor is countering tactical aviation and CABs.
The tactical aviation of the ROE currently has total dominance in Ukrainian airspace, primarily through the unpunished use of aerial reconnaissance bombs (ARBs).
This means of defeat has become a lifeline for the ROV in breaking through JIC defense lines and breaking into fortified areas. Overall, the loss of Avdeevka in 2024 was the result of both a shortage of BCs for artillery and the lack of an effective toolkit to counter CABs.
A KAB is a free-fall corrected aerial bomb, which acquired its properties by installing universal planning and flight correction modules (UMPC) on it. These modules, in fact, do not really increase the accuracy of strikes through correction, but they allow planning at 50 and sometimes even 70 km. These modules are used on bombs such as OFAB-250/500/1500, ODAB-500/1500, RBK-500/1500, etc....
Keywords: Ukraine, combat operations, Ukrainian Defense Forces, Russian occupation forces, artillery parity, tactical aviation, military strategy, conflict dynamics
Rewrite: Exploring Key Factors Shaping Combat Operations in Ukraine #MilitaryAnalysis #UkraineConflict #DefenseStrategy
Editorial comment: This report offers valuable insights into the evolving situation in Ukraine, shedding light on critical factors that could shape the outcome of combat operations. Readers are encouraged to consider the complexities of the conflict and the potential implications of the factors discussed.
Conclusion: The report highlights the importance of factors such as artillery parity and countering tactical aviation in determining the course of combat operations in Ukraine. It underscores the need for strategic considerations and preparedness in addressing the challenges faced by the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Moving forward, continued analysis and adaptation will be essential in navigating the complexities of the conflict.
Keywords: Military analysis, Ukraine conflict, defense strategy, combat operations, strategic considerations, conflict dynamics
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