this post was submitted on 10 Jan 2024
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[–] orbit 16 points 9 months ago (2 children)

Lol - from the South China Morning Post sourced from the China Academy of Science. I have a hard time accepting this as anything beyond attempted good PR. I wonder how this squares with the demographic and real estate issues China is facing.

[–] [email protected] 8 points 9 months ago

CAS routinely overestimates but the World Bank routinely underestimates.

So it goes.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

Friendly reminder that the World Bank was projecting 4.3% GDP growth for 2023 in December 2022 and raised that to 5.2% by December 2023.

CAS was projecting 6% for 2023 in December 2022.

The final IMF estimate was 5.4% for 2023.

My estimate is that China will just barely squeak 5% GDP growth this year off of the real estate bubble having been mostly deflated already while EV and green energy exports shoot up.