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submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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🚨 Latest poll for @ObserverUK. Labour lead at 15 points.

Labour: 43% (-1)

Conservatives: 28% (+3)

Lib Dems: 9% (n/c)

SNP: 3% (n/c)

Green: 6% (-1)

Reform UK: 8% (+1)

(Changes are from a poll released in the Observer last week)

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

Flavible:

Party	Pred %	Pred Seats
CON 🌳	28.0%	199
LAB 🌹	43.0%	365
LD 🔶	9.0%	28
REFUK ➡️	8.0%	0
Green 🌍	6.0%	1
SNP 🎗️	3%	33
PC 💮	0.5%	3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON 🌳	44.7%	375	28.0%	9	213	-204	172
LAB 🌹	33.0%	198	43.0%	233	0	+233	430
LIB 🔶	11.8%	8	9%	8	0	+8	16
Reform ➡️	2.1%	0	8%	0	0	+0	0
Green 🌍	2.8%	1	6%	0	0	+0	1
SNP 🎗️	4.0%	48	3.0%	0	38	-38	10
PlaidC 💮	0.5%	2	0.5%	1	1	+0	2
Other ⬜️	1.1%	0	2.5%	1	0	+1	1
N.Ire ⬜️	-	18	-	0	0	+0	18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con	Lab	Lib	REF	Green	SNP
28%	31%	3%	1%	3%	31%

Don't believe the Scots numbers for a second in this poll; and they are having a real impact on the EC seat numbers.