this post was submitted on 14 Apr 2024
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TechTakes
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Personally I think a unnoticed black swan event relating climate change is way more likely. 'Whoops turns out that we thought 1.5C wasn't that big a problem but this causes some feedback loop in the oceans killing them all, yes it caused more algae to grow, but these had less nutrition causing the fish to overeat and die, causing the algae to choke themselves out. Dead seas everywhere'.
Sad upvote.
Dont worry, as people are aware this might happen, it isn't technically a black swan event. It is just a risk we are ignoring ;) (im not sure if this is actually a real risk, or that we really are ignoring it, im not a marine biologist).
I feel this makes it an unlikely great filter though. Surely some aliens would be less stupid than humanity?
Or they could be on a planet with far less fossil fuels reserves, so they don't have the opportunity to kill themselves.
Think both 'has the wisdom as a society to prevent unknown unknown side effects from industrialization from wrecking the ecosystem' and 'has almost no access to fossil fuels' could also be pretty effective filters. In the latter case they prob would still be around but they wouldn't spread in the universe so we wouldn't hear from them which I think would satisfy the filter reqs.