this post was submitted on 25 Jan 2024
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Yes, but also no. There are a bunch of other factors that contribute to a windows performance; manufacturer, type of gas used in the cavity, spacer material conductivity, thermal bridge free frame design, low e coatings and solar reflectance, and the quality of the installation matters most. Then there's the windows efficiency relative to the rest of the assembly. If it's a building code basic 2x4 wall from 1970 then you're absolutely right, it would be overkill putting some triple pane krypton filled window in. But if you've got a foot of exterior insulation and are pushing a u value of 0.13 on your wall assembly then you need windows to match.
Source: certified Passive House designer, the most demanding energy standard for buildings available, that originated in ..... yup you guessed it, Germany.
I have a relatively new house (built 2006). I came to the conclusion that the extra money spent on triple paned windows would be more effectively spent on improvements elsewhere. Like a heat pump or hybrid water heater.
In the end, we weren't able to swing the windows at all, but did replace our crappy doors.
Sadly code minimums for newer builds haven't really changed drastically in decades. It's all just 2x6 with batt and poly, fundamentals the same as it has been since the 1970s. My 2019 build just had the shower lines freeze because they're against an exterior wall (-30 cold snap, but still).
You're probably right though that a heat pump is a better investment. Redoing the entire building envelope is a big ask if it's not deteriorating and needing work anyway.