this post was submitted on 29 Jun 2023
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Reddit is too big to fail, they have achieved critical mass. Keep in mind facebook is still around despite being a reviled company, and instagram certainly hasn't had a mass migration off of the platform either.
At the end of the day Lemmy isn't a replacement to reddit yet. It depends entirely upon it getting traction which thus far still hasn't occurred - we are not at critical mass yet. I hope it happens but there are many reasons why this site could fail even after reddit's admin blunders. Too many people are apathetic to the changes and not all of them are lurkers who do not post or comment.
Today you can't just stop using reddit either, especially for google searches. Too much content is ONLY on reddit. It's a huge problem. We really need a wikipedia style reddit where it's not for profit and still moderated for content.
Facebook may not have failed, but it's a shell of the platform that it was. Twitter is on the way to that status, Tumblr did it to their users and it's happened time after time. The little bit I've browsed the front page of reddit in the last little bit there's been a noticeable drop in post and comment quality.
I know there's a few reddit archive projects, and it may be worth looking into a project that could scrape the html and present the info without it being Reddit.
You think facebook is dying? their monthly active users have grown year over year every year so far. It slowed down approaching 3 billion but still grows. https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/
Twitter's user count by comparison is a joke, 368m in 2022, but as of current statistics they have only ever grown despite doom and gloom over the changes. I always hated twitter, but the facts are what they are. They do predict a decline of the platform but it's far from an abandonment. Since twitter is now private it's unlikely we'll get great data from them moving forward. https://www.statista.com/statistics/303681/twitter-users-worldwide/
Reddit doesn't have equivalency statistics since it's always been private. Best I can find places it somewhere between 800m and 1.6 billion monthly active users. Way bigger than twitter and honestly given that lemmy has yet to break 0.01 billion MAU i'm not convinced lemmy will succeed or not. I'm obviously here because I want it to, i'm just not drinking anybody's koolaid because I wish things to be a certain way regardless of reality.
I don't think reddit will go anywhere, i'm just not using it anymore.
This is correct. Facebook is a fundamentally different site than what most people think. They're taking the Google approach, investing heavily into providing infrastructure for under developed countries. They have subsidiaries like Discover which partners with local internet providers to offer free or discounted internet access. WhatsApp provides an alternative messenger system for regions like SEA or interior India and Pakistan, etc.
Facebook doesn't give a shit that you and your friends don't use it anymore. They're making money off techno-colonizing foreign nations.