In the silence of the Civil War’s Antietam battlefield on a winter day, bucolic hills give way to rows of small, white gravestones in the nearby cemetery. Wandering over the deadliest ground in American history, a melancholy visitor may be excused for wondering if this November’s presidential contest poses the greatest threat to the nation’s future since the election of 1860.
After his victory in Iowa, Donald Trump is the favourite to become the Republican nominee. Leading commentators on the Left warn that, should he get re-elected, he will become a dictator and end democracy. On the Right, meanwhile, the belief is unshakeable that Joe Biden is mentally incapable of fulfilling the duties of president and won’t survive a second term.
These raw emotions are not simply the quadrennial outbursts of partisan feeling that emerge in an election season. Rather, they are portents of a much deeper dislocation in American society. For over two decades now, Americans have been battered by non-stop crises at home and abroad — from the long War on Terror to Covid and the George Floyd protests — leading to what feels like national exhaustion and a deep pessimism about the future of democracy.
Our pessimism has resurrected the once-unthinkable idea of disunion, or in today’s parlance, “national divorce”. In a 2021 poll conducted by the University of Virginia, more than 80% of both Biden and Trump voters stated that elected officials from the opposite party presented “a clear and present danger to American democracy”. Most shockingly, 41% of Biden voters and 52% of Trump voters stated that things were so bad, they supported secession from the Union. Two years later those numbers remained essentially the same in an Ipsos poll, with a fifth of Americans strongly wanting to separate.
For those who believe that such concerns are simply hysteria, we should remember that America’s road to the Civil War took decades. In March 1850, southern statesman John C. Calhoun gave a prescient warning to the Senate: “It is a great mistake to suppose that disunion can be effected by a single blow. The cords which bound these States together in one common Union, are far too numerous and powerful for that. Disunion must be the work of time.”
Not even a majority of Republicans want a civil war. It's just a bunch of wonks looking for views and loud idiots who don't get what it would actually take for it to happen or what the fallout would be. This has also been a narrative that Russia has been pushing for decades.
I live in Texas. The rural and urban Republicans here do not all see eye to eye. When they've actually worked at passing non-performative legislation the two groups have fought each other on many occasions. There is no monolithic GOP here. And if there's no monolithic GOP in Texas, then it likely doesn't exist elsewhere. They only succeed here because of the stigma attached to voting Democrat. If the Dems had run someone other than Beto and who had good charisma, there might have been a fair chance at unseating Abbott. As it stands, Beto still gave him a run for his money and his smallest win yet. Hell, it was the smallest GOP win since W beat Ann Richards in 1994, so almost 30 years. This is against a man who the GOP here absolutely hates with a burning passion. There were plenty Republicans interviewed who said they didn't want Abbott, but Beto was a non-starter for them to vote Democrat. All that and he still got the biggest vote percent for a Dem in 28 years.
All this talk of civil war is just bunk that has no basis in reality whatsoever. It is all just foreign propaganda that people on both sides are eating up without using their critical thinking skills.
Edit: Allow me to put forth a more timely statistic. Recently the Texit movement tried to get a resolution to discuss Texas leaving the Union. Out of the 103k signatures they gathered, less than 9k were actual Texas citizens. So, in a state with 30 million people, this group could not even muster the 0.3% of the population of this state to want to leave the union. They didn't even get 0.03%. So, do you think Texas really supports leaving the Union or joining a Civil War? No, they don't. Neither do the politicians because they know the absolute nightmare it would be to try to support all the people who would lose their federal support. Every military veteran getting support from the government, every retiree, every child in a poor household. Texas makes a fair bit of coin, yeah, but they don't make enough to be able to replace the payment for all those without significantly raising their taxes and people here are already pissed about taxes, especially their skyrocketing property taxes. There's zero chance any politician who supports any increase in the way the government generates funds, whether you call them taxes or fees or whatever, will get re-elected. Abbott, Patrick, etc, are not so stupid as to not be aware of this. Nor are other conservative political leaders across the country that stupid or unaware, either.