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You can model average insolation (and use that to extrapolate average harvest) by month using tools like PVwatts. Here's a walkthrough.
Using Bowling Green, KY as an example since it's on the 37th. 100w of flatmounted panel on an MPPT solar charge controller would average:
Derate those yields by ~18% if using PWM. <-- rule of thumb, not gospel
if we are on the west coast instead, here's Santa Cruz, California:
The figures above are daily averages, including normal weather patterns and are how we size our systems. But for the sake of curiosity/understanding, my observations have been that if my clear-day harvest is X then overcast is 0.6X, bright overcast is 0.7X and dark/rainy is 0.05-0.10X. Cloud-edge effect and other reflective phenomena can result in harvest >1X.
A battery warming solution could be implemented for $20 (warming pads, 12v temp controller).
Not OP but this is really neat. Thanks.
Over the past few days my system has been severely under performing in relation to these calculations. For January it says 290 Wh per day, but I'm only seeing 50. I do have a lot of trees, so probably some shading... maybe even a lot of shading.