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this post was submitted on 25 Dec 2023
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Україна Ukraine
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Interesting. Thank you for your elaborations!
Hmm, I understand your reference, but how does it apply here? Can you explain? For those not expecting anything, most things are unexpected.
A civil war is likely not one of those things because if the majority of the population did not expect one and is therefore not involved, is it really a civil war (and not a putch?) I know it's a civil war in the sense of an inner conflict of power, but I mean the populace does not actually care who's winning because they are already too detached and not really invested in the conflict, as seen in some countries.
Brain drain is a real issue. Mostly "common" people are left, and the leaders now profit far more from the existing system and are more interested in preservation and personal gains than anything else. The few opposing "leading" people that are left got hit pretty hard; let's remember what happened with Navalny, the most notable of them. Also, I don't know why you think Russians actually have a choice in who they vote into office. At least in my understanding, they do not; I mean, it's a phantom choice. Russia is only on paper a democracy and a pretty bad one at that. They do not have real free elections, and you can definitely not compare it to the presidential election in the USA.
Again, I do not understand why you judge or have the same expectations of Russia as you would a Western democracy, but at the same time, acknowledging that they are definitely not. Since I am alive, I've known Russia as an autocracy/dictatorship with an oligarchy and Putin as an autocrat.
To whom do you think someone with a superior complex, all the money, and resources in the world answers? Sure, he's not alone; he has his accomplices and enablers, and Putin is not the root of the problem, but no one said that. No autocracy is working because there is one man who says, "I'm president now." It's working because of a complex structure that is there to support exactly one leader. If someone is behind the scenes and truly has more power than Putin, he/they would have replaced Putin a long time ago. As you said, real predators are not this stupid. I call it an autocracy supported by an oligarchy and definitely not a democracy (I mean the actual word definitions here, not what someone might connect with those words).
Yes, in a correct world, he will get arrested and put in front of a military court like it is happening sometimes in Ukraine. And yes, if a Ukrainian soldier executes a Russian because he caught him in the act of committing war crimes or for whatever reason, he should get arrested. Of course, I don't expect the judge to rule harshly in such circumstances, but yes, a war crime is a war crime, no matter how justified someone might think it is. But I know that's often not the reality.
That's maybe a stupid opinion of mine, but, for example, people in a free democracy are far more to blame if their elected leaders and their actions and intentions go sideways than the population of an autocracy. Because in the first, the leaders are an "extension" of the folk, and in the latter, the population is an "extension" of the leader. I don't know how to say it in English; I hope you understand what I mean.
Of course, I still expect them to do the right thing, but I fully understand that this is a losing battle as long as the leader can pacify the masses via whatever medium or can keep them distracted; they are safe. That's where sanctions (I know this is only one aspect of sanctions) come into play; you gradually chip away at what made the Russian oligarchy/autocracy so stable for a time. If it gets worse or even uncomfortable for the population and there is no real reason or they do not believe the reasons of the leaders why they are worse off, then you will see movement. This takes time but is our best shot to "wake up" the Russian population and make the situation harder to handle for the regime.
For example, if Putin gets "elected" in the next election, we laugh and sure, what else did you expect? If Americans elect Trump for the second time, we think, "WTF is wrong with you guys? Are you still sane?"
XD so basically, we go in the direction of cyberpunk, where corporations are more powerful than countries.