this post was submitted on 19 Dec 2023
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Frankly, this is a political win for Trump either way.
He was never going to win Colorado. Biden had a full landslide win there in 2020. But now Trump gets to talk about the deep state working to cheat the election away from him yada yada yada... over a challenge that is definitely Constitutionally debatable at best.
SCOTUS will likely say the POTUS is not one of the specific roles listed in the 14th, that this is a political question and not for courts to decide, that it can't be enforced without a conviction for sedition, or some combination of all these things. All totally valid responses to the case, honestly. edit: or that the amendment is not self-enforcing, also possibly true.
SCOTUS won’t get to take an easy way out saying that the Amendment doesn’t apply to the President.
We literally have a transcript of the people who wrote the 14th Amendment saying that it absolutely applies to the President and that they enumerated the people in the 14th because everyone wasn’t exactly sure they would be considered officers. So we have legal record that can be submitted as evidence in that regard indicating that it absolutely applies to the President.
Why that one court ruled that way is weird because it literally ignores the record surrounding that Amendment.
So for SCOTUS to rule that way would be them completely ignoring Congressional record which historically they themselves have relied on. I wouldn’t put it past them but goodness it would look incredibly bad for them to do so.
Likely they’ll indicate that insurrection and disqualification can only be applied at the Federal level. This wouldn’t invalidate Colorado and would acknowledge that the 14th applies to the President but would kick the can down the road.
This would also tiptoe around upsetting too much States determination on elections. SCOTUS as given in their overturning the notion of Independent Legislature Doctrine, what elections to be dictated broadly by States with the Federal Government taking a hands off approach. Pushing too hard back on Colorado on something they determined would upset that idea they’ve crafted. But also not pushing back at all on it would allow states to kick candidates off the ticket with no review. I’m pretty sure Southern States will follow suit in kicking Biden off the ticket for (IDK Insert some stupid ass reason here).
So the Court is likely to push back on Colorado but I’m doubtful they’ll indicate that Colorado was wrong just that they’re not the final say, somehow.