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this post was submitted on 27 Jun 2023
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It’s only weird if you think this wasn’t the result they wanted. They don’t just want the ad revenue. They want the user numbers for their IPO and the tons of sellable user data you can collect with a smartphone app.
Thing is, the slow boil technique is tried and true. Each turn of the crank would only anger a small group, and would ensure the platform remains stable and popular.
A better question is why is this happening all at once? It feels like the top brass had a meeting to discuss options to increase revenue, and just decided "Fuck it. Let's just do them all"
My feeling is they looked at their user numbers, and the specifically those using the API and/or 3rd party apps, and did the calculation to decide that they wouldn't lose enough people to cause a mass migration.
I think whether that calculation was correct or not still remains to be seen.
A distant cause is likely the changes in monetary policy (rate hikes). The tech sector has been structuring their capital as if borrowing would always be cheap, and they were unprepared for a sudden flight toward sustainable cash flow.
I think their only hope for "fuck you money" at this point is to cash out at IPO and watch it burn.
I think it makes a lot of sense as a series of emotional reactions, mostly from spez. He won't back down and no one can make him.
They don't want to serve ads through the API because ad buyers care about exactly how the ads will be presented. The apps would have to work very closely with Reddit to ensure consistent ad presentation, which is more work for them so they don't want to do it.
The API price was plucked out of thin air, presumably based on what they believed OpenAI/Microsoft/Google would be willing to pay. Third party apps were acceptable collateral damage.
My guess is their funding dried up due to recent financial system instability causing venture capitalists to stop blindly handing out money. That plus the NFT shit they were into suggests they might have had some exposure to the recent crypto fallout as well. The upcoming IPO and the way spez seems determined to see this through no matter what screams looming financial crisis.
because the commons is not sustainable as a profit entity, never was. The move to 5%+ rates is pushing every player to "make it" or "die"
reddit is toast.
I've adopted the same IPO theory. Huffman thought this would drive more people to the official app, and he expects that increase to help the IPO so he'd make more money from it. If it works he'll make a lot more money a lot faster than the approach in the screenshot. Then he can just serve everyone ads anyway, sell data etc.
Also he probably thought we were all a bunch of spineless addicts who would cry really loud and eventually fall in line, and a lot of users have. Now let's wait and see the quality of community and content he gets after pissing off the people doing the most to create it.
It may be more likely people just engage less with reddit by waiting until they are at a computer.
I’ve been part of a startup that was looking to exit shortly, and yeah they go through all kinds of long-term-destructive behavior just to make the numbers better on the short-term. I do also think a shrunk IPO timeline because of the tech VC market tightening is the cause of all of this.
It sounds exactly right. They figured even if they got 20% of the third party apps users to start using theirs for the reasons you suggested, it's better than keeping the users as is. The 80% they lost from 3p apps are probably a small change compared to what the 20% that did move get them at the ipo (this is a guess though)