this post was submitted on 26 Jun 2023
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Prediction: RHEL dies in the next 5-10 years anyway while everyone moves to free options. Considering the amount of containerization being run on production systems, whatever VM is running docker or k8s doesn't need to really be managed to the same level that VM/bare metal webservers required in the past.
Sure, some big orgs will still foot the license fees, but considering CentOS/RHEL was the standard previously, I don't really see a benefit for corps to pay those fees any longer. Most will probably move to some random free stable distro for their VMs, and run any production resources via lightweight containers based on something like Alpine.
I think you're underestimating the value organizations and enterprises put on having high quality support available at a moments notice. Particularly first party support.
Not to mention how long it takes a big org to migrate, even between versions of rhel. I've seen 6 -> 7 migrations happen inside the last month.
We migrated from 6->7 in just under a year (university). Under a month could be seen also as risky, but great that some have the liberty of speedy migration paths.
I fear you've misunderstood, the org has been migrating for the last 4 years, my point is the migration from 6-7 is still ongoing when both 8 and 9 have been released. A 5-10 year exit from rhel is super optimistic for some orgs.