this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2023
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Prediction time!
Stage Zero: Works with only minor damage.
Booster Engine Failures: 5 :(
Hot Staging: Works, looks cool.
Upper Stage: Flies, with significant issues.
FTS: Big boom, on time!
End result: Booster re-enters in one piece, Ship in many.
This is a really hot take, but I reckon if it manages to make if to stage separation in one piece, and the hot staging works, the ship should fly trouble-free.
It's the one part of the system that they have done significant testing on, not that many engines etc. If they once again don't make it past staging that would be very concerning for the Starship timeline, Artemis, and so on...
It'll be so cool to see the booster soft splash.
Biggest hope is that they manage to get away without sandblasting Boca Chica so the FAA don't ground them for 6 months again.