this post was submitted on 25 Jun 2023
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It’s so clear he got a secret deal. Prigozhin captured the major supply chain for the war. He had so much leverage he got something super valuable. Also good luck Mr Putin with elections coming up.
there is no real election in Russia.
No, but it can be rigged against Putin, instead of in favor of him.
That would be very interesting. But it is uncertain whether anything will improve for Ukraine then.
Yes, that's not a given. But maybe it's easier for a new President to make a 180, than it is for the guy who started the direction.
The deal isn't secret. He got to keep his life for now and the wagner troops avoid treason trial. Remember it isn't only about Prigozhin. When the actual Wagner troops heard Putin call them traitors, their rebellion enthusiastic might have lapsed greatly. Since one part of the messaging seemed to indicate the plan was This isn't about Putin, but military high command. Dear Tsar, your boyars are misleading you. Not to worry Tsar, we are here to help. Well Tsar decided to side with boyars, so now it was open rebellion against Tsar Putin and He just ruled all of the troops rebelling national traitors. Did prigozhin actually order Wagner to stop or did Wagner troops refuse to continue.
Probably Prigo got some money as part of the deal, since that is how Russian kleptocracy works. Everything is greased with some money. Exile, keep life and some wound healing money. Thing is Prigo is probably dead man walking. The safety assurances he got are worth nothing. However it might have been "take this deal or bullet to head immediately". Maybe you die later, maybe you don't. If you don't take the deal, you die certainly immediately. Kremlin just didn't want massive blood shed at gates of Moscow for PR, so offered a deal.
They got to 100km from Moscow and there they had Kremlin regiment and other Moscow defense zone troops vanguard waiting saying "you come closer, we start shooting. Our bosses message is stop here and bygones be bygones. Continue and there will be no mercy for you."
They got to just drive on in the hinterland, since there was no troops there. Moscow is different matter. It has permanent anti-coup/anti-decapitation garrison. Multiple regiments worth of it, so not just couple hundred ceremonial guards. Thousands of troops in garrison. Given it was only finally 5K Wagner troops driving to Moscow, most likely they were actually out numbered even by the permanent Moscow garrisons. Plus airforce close air support on top of that (even if Wagner had manpads).
When I first read this comment, my reaction was that the elections are rigged, so why would anyone even bother challenging him? After watching the video I get what you mean. It just depends who the elections are rigged for.
Those were some bold predictions though. Also interesting to see if prigo's talks of the absurdity of the invasion mean any changes next year.