UK Politics

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submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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🚨 This week's Opinium poll for @ObserverUK.

Labour makes gains and leads by 18 points.

Labour 44% (+3)

Conservatives 26% (-3)

Lib Dems 8% (-3)

SNP 2% (-1)

Green 7% (n/c)

Reform UK 10% (+3)

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[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

Flavible:

Party	Pred %	Pred Seats
CON	26.0%	181
LAB	44.0%	402
LD	8.0%	28
REFUK	10.0%	0
Green	7.0%	1
SNP	2%	13
PC	0.5%	3

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	44.7%	375	26.0%	6	234	-228	147
LAB	33.0%	198	44.0%	262	0	+262	460
LIB	11.8%	8	8%	6	2	+4	12
Reform	2.1%	0	10%	0	0	+0	0
Green	2.8%	1	7%	0	0	+0	1
SNP	4.0%	48	2%	0	39	-39	9
PlaidC	0.5%	2	0.4%	1	1	+0	2
Other	1.1%	0	0.1%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire	-	18	-	0	0	+0	18

Scotland EC Break-Down

Con	Lab	Lib	REF	Green	SNP
19%	34%	1%	6%	12%	28%

1% for the Libs in Scotland is 100% sampling error, they had just 1 person in 126 in Scotland go for the Lib Dems, so major dose of salt...