While I agree it's pretty damning, I'd point out that both parties are pretty desperate not to be blamed for the incident (or just generally sow confusion). It's likely we won't ever know definitively.

I'd also point out that because of the immense power imbalance (including the iron dome and broad western support) and a history of strikes against civilian targets generally (that Israel routinely warns Gaza about preemptively), it is more likely that it was an Israeli rocket responsible for the incident. But this is also conjecture and not conclusive.

If you're looking for rationale to defend one side or the other, this probably isn't it.