cross-posted from: https://mastodon.online/users/hallenbeck/statuses/111293316231491706
I've made an updated graphic based on feedback. Thanks to @[email protected] for the critique. Updated graphic here:
https://thelastboyscout.uk/assets/img/son_xg_stats.webp
Is Son one of the best finishers EVER? Let's look at some data. 👇
We use actual goals minus expected goals (xG) as a proxy for finishing skill. Players who consistently score more than their xG means they are scoring goals other players would miss. Generally, only the most elite goalscorers *consistently* outperform their xG.
And I can find no player who consistently beats Son. It's astonishing.
Can you find anyone better at elite level?
No, it takes into account the events and circumstances of the play, not the individual skill of the players involved. At least, that's how Opta's xG model works.
More here: https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/
Oh I think I see what you're saying: a poor team will create poorer chances in general, leading to lower xG shots. There's truth in that, but is it the case at Spurs? The club has had an average league position of 4.6 over the last 10 seasons, which suggests it has had above average players, regardless of (lack of) trophies, so you'd have thought, on balance, those players would in general be capable of "good play" resulting in high xG chances. All that is besides the point, though. This analysis is about how Son has an uncanny ability to score low xG chances.
Handy hint: you can eyeball low xG goals by looking at a player's Goal Log on FBref then sorting on the xG column, low to high. Always fun to check out the really low ones. The PSxG stat (called xGOT on Sofascore) gives us an indication of how savable the shot is - the closer to 1, the less likely to save. It's a useful indicator of the "quality" of the shot to go along with the "difficulty" represented by xG.
E.g. https://fbref.com/en/players/92e7e919/goallogs/dom_lg/Son-Heung-min-Goal-Log