this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2023
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I think there's a human bias towards certainty, to believing in true facts. research is work, and when it undermines personal certainty, there's an urge to just go with whoever does seem to be most certain. if you can't be sure of the facts on a personal level, go with the guy who is loudest and most certain. and because people seeking to relay truth will make room for doubt, conspiracy theory guy wins.
understanding probability helps here - if 90% of climatologists are 90% sure of climate change, their doubt doesn't make climate hoax guy right. the podcast 538 covers politics, but goes into polling theory, statistics, and probability in ways that make it easier for me to understand and apply in other areas.