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they can change AP to suit them

Not even close to how that works. ActivityPub is a W3 Consortium protocol. It no more belongs to Meta than it belongs to you or I. Meta can either play by the standards of the ActivityPub protocol, they can fence-sit and cause angsts for their own users, or they simply won't. It's as simple as that.

And with regards to Linux, we won the war with servers, with enterprise, with supercomputing, and now Linux is rapidly gaining ground in workstations for the arts. And in the PC marker, Linux hasn't taken off to a massive degree yet, but Windows is currently losing regardless. On track to fall below 50% market share in the next year or two in the US, and fell below 70% market share worldwide earlier this year. Interestingly, there is no clear victor in this, with Apple being the perhaps the biggest vainer, but far from a majority of it, which is perhaps for the best, there need not be one computer OS to rule them all. Regardless, one doesn't win such wars with single sweeping actions, it's the slow and gradual grind advancing towards something better.

You mention Hotmail, yet it's sorta the sad child of email nowadays. That's why I have no fear of Meta being on the Fediverse. They either will play by the standards of ActivityPub and it'll be a net gain for us all by having people be introduced to it in a soft-landing, or they won't, and the only ones who lose are those on Meta's instance. Remember Gab? The only ones affected by their actions to stop Federation (aside from like... 90% of the Fediverse blocking their instance) were those on their instance, the rest of the Fediverse remained unaffected. That's the beauty of the Fediverse, and federation overall. The ultimate loss for not playing by ActivityPub standards is for the instance/service itself, not the rest of the Fediverse.