this post was submitted on 12 Sep 2023
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Eh, I don't know Apple's intentions but this specific design change isn't that complicated. The lightning port still uses the USB protocol so the firmware will be the same or very similar. The supporting electronics also wouldn't change much, but at most they'd omit/add a few small passives and slightly reroute that part of the circuit to make things fit together. They'd also have to lock down a large production run of USB ports, but any manufacturer would accommodate a customer as large as Apple. They'd need to test fit it with the new phone chassis but that's relatively simple as well. Regulatory certification would also be smooth sailing for a change this simple, since most of what's changing is simply the form factor.
I figure it would take two years before customers would see this design change from the moment engineering was assigned it.
I'm an electrical engineer who works in production if that matters.
It's really hard to say without being personally involved. Two years is a very comfortable amount of time to implement that specific change. The biggest hurdle is passing regulatory testing early enough to begin manufacturing in time to build a large enough stockpile before release. If they really pushed it and threw enough people at it, manufacturing could begin as little as 6 months after starting. But that's a very risky timeline because about a million things will still go wrong all throughout the process, and "simple" design changes like this are never, ever simple.
I'm impressed if they began production one year after deciding to make the change. The EU directive might've been approved roughly a year ago, but Apple might've seen writing on the wall and started earlier too. Regardless of context, this is definitely not a >2-3 year process though.