France

Le rapport du groupe 2 du GIEC donne des infos là dessus qui peuvent peut être te rassurer.

Dans la section la nourriture en Europe (à partir de la page 1843) :

While there is high agreement of the direction of change, the absolute yield losses are uncertain due to differences in model parameterisation and whether adaptation options are represented (high confidence)

Donc pour eux c'est pas clair qu'il y aura des pertes de production dans l'absolu, s'il y a des adaptations.

In response to 2°C GWL, agro-climatic zones in Europe are expected to move northward 25–135 km per decade, fastest in EEU

Donc il faudra à l'avenir adopter des cultures qui étaient avant de plus en plus au sud.

Use of longer-season varieties can compensate for heat stress on maize in WCE and lead to yield increases for NEU, but not SEU for 4°C GWL (medium confidence)

Pour le maïs on peut s'adapter en Europe de l'ouest en changeant les variétés.

Irrigation can reduces projected heat and drought stress, for example, for wheat and maizz

Et par irrigation.

Net yield losses will reduce economic output from agriculture in the EU, reaching a reduction of 7% for the EU and the UK combined, and 10% in SEU at 4°C GWL

Ils prévoient quand même une baisse économique, mais de 10 % dans l'Europe du sud, donc c'est pas aussi gigantesque que ta terreur laisse penser, même si certains vont effectivement renoncer :

Increased heat and drought stress, and reduced irrigation water availability, will decrease profitability and cause abandonment of farmland in SEU (limited evidence, low confidence)

Ensuite ils parlent des solutions page 1847, avec un tableau qui résume les solutions et leur efficacité page 1846 : https://i.imgur.com/anUMPGl.png.

Quelques citations :

Farm management adaptation options to climate change include changing sowing and harvest dates, changes in cultivars and irrigation, and selecting alternative crop

Irrigation is effective at reducing yield loss from heat stress and drought, for example, for wheat and maize, but it increases demand for water withdrawal

Water management for food production on land is becoming increasingly complex due to the need to satisfy other social and environmental water demands and is limited by costs and institutional coordination

Crop breeding for drought and heat tolerance can improve sustainability of agricultural production under future climate, particularly in SEU where drought-tolerant varieties provide 30% higher yields than drought-sensitive varieties at 3°C GW

Agroecological systems provide adaptation options that rely on ecological process (e.g., soil organic matter recycling and functional diversification) to lower inputs without impacting productivity

Agroforestry, integrating trees with crops (silvoarable), livestock (silvopasture), or both (agrosilvopasture), can enhance resilience to climate change but implementation in Europe needs improved training programmes and policy support (high confidence)

Technological innovations, including ‘smart farming’ and knowledge training, can strengthen farmers’ responses to climate impacts, although strong belief in ‘technosalvation’ by farmers can reduce the solution space and timing of adaptation options.

(Technosalvation is the ideology that technologies such as geoengineering will save us from climate change, and so mitigation behavior is not necessary[1])

Agricultural policy, market prices, new technology and socioeconomic factors play a more important role in short-term farm-level investment decisions than climate-change impacts (high confidence)

Effective policy guidance is needed to increase the climate resilience of agriculture

Financial measures include simplifying procedures for obtaining subsidies, and insurance premiums and interest rates that incentivise adoption of climate-friendly agricultural methods

The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy has increasingly focused on environmental outcomes (Alliance Environnement, 2018) but does not sufficiently provide for adaptation measures

Limits to European farm-level adaptation include lack of resources for investment, political urgency to adapt, institutional capacity, access to adaptation knowledge and information from other countries

Ce que je retiens c'est que l'agriculture en Europe va devoir s'adapter, pas s'arrêter. Et que les solutions sont surtout dans le changement des politiques publiques pour accompagner et encourager ces adaptations.