552
Kremlin Says 'Theoretically Possible' to Not Hold Presidential Elections
(www.themoscowtimes.com)
this post was submitted on 07 Aug 2023
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IMO we're more likely to see Russia break into a pile of separate republics than a big unified uprising. Maybe that pile of republics gets unified by a new dictator or Putin, maybe not. As it is, the core Russian ethnic group is shrinking while several of the other ethnicities are growing within their respective regions.
Eventually the Russians won't have enough young men to conscript and continue maintaining control of their already massive territory, which will lead to existing regional governments declaring independence while Russia proper will be able to do fuck all about it unless they wanna start nuking their neighbors.
Russia break into a pile of separate republic is practically impossible, as it will cause colossal pain for literally all states. It is much easier to negotiate with one dictator with a nuclear button than with twenty.
Look, I'm not arguing what I think makes sense for people to do, I'm thinking about how people in large groups tend to act, regardless of whether it's logical. Competing for power is inevitable whenever a centralized system can't maintain outright dominance.
Yes yes. The evil Putin has usurped all power alone and is standing up to the entire government like a real Russian. And he probably shot Nemtsov personally.
In fact, there are many interested forces in the government. People for war, people against war, people who don't care. Everything is like everywhere else.
Prigozhin went on his march because Putin tried to legally ban Wagner by transferring all financial flows to the army. Prigozhin received the money and quietly left. probably literally everyone knows this. how fashionable it is to believe in the image of a strong old man is a mystery to me.
then you don't quite understand how the Russian economy works. The regions do not have their own economic system and their own army either. Both money and people pass through Moscow. how to find resources for the collapse in such conditions is unclear to me. If only you believe in the people in a single impulse organizing their own government. This is also very unlikely.