Similar to Mastodon's spikes last year, it seems. Anyways, there is data to think about. Source
this post was submitted on 06 Aug 2023
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To be fair, (to be faiiiiiir), Subreddits didnt exist when most of the Digg migration occurred.
What you are seeing is a lot of the most tech savvy/privacy concerned/anti-corporatism folks from reddit making the switch early, while some of the populist folks trying it out.
Feels exactly like the weeks prior to Digg buying the farm. There was an early surge, a slight decline, then a wave of people.
That being said, I don't think the masses move to the fediverse. It is too nuanced and technical for 90+% of typical reddit users and will always have that barrier for entry.