this post was submitted on 27 Jul 2023
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I just... Don't believe it. I generally believe there is more going on than nothing but if the US had a spaceship with an alien body then we are really fucking bad at capitalizing on that technology, past the point of believability.
I believe aliens exist, somewhere in the universe. Statistically it seems inevitable, I just don't believe they've visited earth or even know we exist, just like we don't know they exist. You can sit on something like that, there would be much better evidence than grainy fake looking videos and second hand accounts.
Earth is a very early stable planet, I'm sure there will be lots more species in the coming billions of years. We might even be the most advanced civilization in the galaxy. But we'll probably never contact anyone else, best we do is notice signs of life on a distant planet.
Or the universe is a dark forest, where civilizations that reveal themselves get snuffed out by more advanced civilizations so they can't pose a threat in the future.
I read to much sci-fi.
I've always liked the theory, well more interested as it's a pretty terrifying concept. I just don't believe interstellar and lightspeed travel is common/easy enough for aliens to devote so much effort into seeking out life, travelling for hundreds/thousands of years just to destroy any other lifeforms it detects. There's no benefit to either party really, any resource you could get on a habited planet you could find on a number of uninhabited ones without the massive expense of an intergalactic "war".
Plus we've been sending out signals for years, we should already be dead - unless the aliens are going to take 1000 years to get here. And I don't see how it's worth it.
There's a short story by Harry Turtledove titled "The Road not Taken."
You should read it.
Basic synopsis: The secret to faster-than-light travel is trivial. It's incredibly easy. So easy, in fact, that most species become spacefaring pretty early in their technological development. But, for one reason or another, we just never noticed it, and never developed the technology. So where other species' development stagnated as they put all their resources into interstellar conquest, we just... kept developing. So when aliens find us and launch their invasion, we kick the complete and total ever-loving dogshit out of them and steal their technology. Look at me. I am the captain now.
It's relatively short, available online, and you could probably read it in 20 minutes. It's definitely worth a read.
Yeah it's just a theory and one that's not likely true, but I recently read the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy and the dark forest theory plays a central role in those books so it was fresh in my mind. Fascinating and terrifying to think about.