this post was submitted on 25 Jul 2023
19 points (91.3% liked)

United Kingdom

4036 readers
170 users here now

General community for news/discussion in the UK.

Less serious posts should go in [email protected] or [email protected]
More serious politics should go in [email protected].

Try not to spam the same link to multiple feddit.uk communities.
Pick the most appropriate, and put it there.

Posts should be related to UK-centric news, and should be either a link to a reputable source, or a text post on this community.

Opinion pieces are also allowed, provided they are not misleading/misrepresented/drivel, and have proper sources.

If you think "reputable news source" needs some definition, by all means start a meta thread.

Posts should be manually submitted, not by bot. Link titles should not be editorialised.

Disappointing comments will generally be left to fester in ratio, outright horrible comments will be removed.
Message the mods if you feel something really should be removed, or if a user seems to have a pattern of awful comments.

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
 

Levelling up secretary calls for scrutiny of green policy but says ban on sale of new petrol and diesel cars is ‘immovable’

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

No I don't doubt that at all. I just don't think we're going to have used car forecourts packed solid with EV's in 7 years time, let alone them also being affordable to the masses.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

EV Percentage of total vehicles sales has been rising each year for the past 10 years. Exact number varies country to country but for most western countries it is now between 10 and 20% of sales per annum (obviously 100% in Norway).

Vehicle fleet turns over about every 15 years in Western nations (give or take depending on country) i.e around 90-95% of cars are less than 15 years old (there will always be very old collectors cars, but that's an entirely different ball game).

So in 7 years time unless EV sales suddenly plummet, at the very least 20% of used cars sales will be EVs. However EV cars are tracking perfectly to S curve of new technology take up (very small number to start then it explodes). So there is every reason to suspect that today's 20% of sales will be significantly higher. In fact it is expected that they will be the vast majority of new sales in most western countries, particularly those like the UK who are banning NEW ICE sales from 2030. Note that's not banning the sale of second hand ICE.

There will therefore be a reasonably large number of second hand EVs, an even larger number of hybrid PHEVs (as a lot of those have been sold over the past 5 years) and there will be an even larger number of very very low cost ICE vehicles as people exit the technology.

People will buy what makes sense for them.