Conservative
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I'm curious to see how DOGE ends up handling this. Given the scale of potential fraud, you'd probably need a dedicated task force just to help sift through cases and figure out what's going on. If you do uncover fraud, then you'd need more people to hold the guilty parties accountable. It might take a few years to work through such a huge number of cases, and with more people aging out of the system each year, it'd likely need to be an ongoing effort. You'd basically need to create a whole new fraud agency to deal with this problem, which is ironic given that the IRS already does this and we're actively trying to downsize them.
Indeed that will be a challenge. I think the DOGE team is great in analyzing data and find inconsistencies and potential fraud. Tricky part is how to fix it. Stopping SS immediately for the most suspected data and wait if someone shows up might be an option, but if that leads to regular people not getting SS that will cause a lot of bad publicity. Until now the electorate in the US is supporting DOGE but that can change.