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Well, this has been known for decades, the Club or Rome's report (Limits of Growth) predicted this in the 1970s. Here's a graphic from 2004:
We need UBI (Universal Basic Income) or people are going to not be able to afford basic commodities any more. We already see working poor, it's gonna get worse. Demand UBI.
And here's the latest recalibration, done in 2023, main difference is that pollution just uses co2 level instead of a complex aggregate of pollution metrics.
Your pictured 2004 model may be the BAU model in these charts, not 100% sure, but Recalibration23 is the latest one.
EDIT: Looks like BAU2.
EDIT 2: Ah, didn't realize who I was replying to, haha. I have apparently successfully evangelized this model to you from that other thread a few days ago.
Still useful for any other readers to see.
...
Socialism or barbarism wasn't just a catchphrase.
Unfortinately, we chose barbarism... even if a miraculous overthrow of capitalism happened right now... I think it is about two decades to late to avoid a catastrophic collapse in standard of living and loss of life.
I used to be pro UBI. Now I'm not so sure. The only resilient tool for increased equality is an organized work force that has real economic power. Workers on UBI has no real power and the UBI can be taken away anytime by those in power.
And if AI takes all jobs.. Well, lets cross that bridge when we get there. Maybe we simply have to hope for that crypto bro UBI solution. Qualia will be our last currency.
An organized work force in the USA is wishful thinking. It could have happened any time in the last 150 years, it didn't. I don't see it happening now.
UBI is a temporary measure. While i agree with you, that it weakens the stance of the population, because they are dependent on welfare money, i'm still reasonably sure it's way better than literally dying by starving to death. Because that's what's otherwise gonna happen.
The only true solution i see is reducing the population size. Supply and demand. If the workforce is smaller, wages are going to go up. The ethical options to do this is by being against migration, and giving women the option to have fewer children. But yeah, you can't say that, or "leftists" will call you a racist, while Trumpeteers will call you a "baby-murderer". So, i guess the USA is stuck.
Few people are just going to sit and starve. They will steal food directly or turn to other crimes to get money to buy food.
UBW -- universal basic work. Jobs for everyone who wants them.
I can think of so many jobs that we don't have because they make no money, but that would better society as a whole. There should be no reason we can't... do that.
i guess this depends on whether you see yourself as a person who deserves basic goods, or if you see yourself as a workforce who needs to be told what to do to be happy.
I don't think we're going to fix things in any meaningful way. I think we're watching a big collapse. Not the end of humanity like some want to predict, but very rough times ahead.
I am with you that we should help each other out, and there's ways to do that. We can feed and shelter people now, and we should, but much more than that becomes infeasible quickly. And I think it will become even less feasible as things get worse.
I think what the other person was saying is... If there's a way to fix things, to make things better or at least lessen the harm, it's going to take a lot of people doing a lot of things. Things that aren't always profitable right away, but pay off later. Better public transit systems, more renewable energy, huge programs replacing the old but crucial infrastructure that brings us clean drinking water, turning useless land into productive fields, and so much more. If we had the political will, we could offer everyone the ability to work on these programs and in return have a better quality of life, while also building a better future.
And to be clear, this isn't all manual labor. Probably most of it isn't really manual labor. It's math, it's planning, it's machine operation, it's coordinating and transporting, it's organizing and communicating. To solve our problems will require a lot of people with a lot of skills, and if we can encourage the right people to be in the right place, we could solve so many problems and make so many things better.
We won't, though. But we could.
It's better for people to feel productive and accomplished than to sit around doing nothing.