this post was submitted on 19 Jan 2025
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Economy

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[–] TheDemonBuer 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I think you're not accounting for the extensive state planning that the Chinese government does. The state operates many key industries in China, and can direct those industries to increase production fairly rapidly.

[–] jrs100000 1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

That would be the possibility of concerning market distortions I mentioned earlier. They could totally be neck deep in pyramid building schemes or running unprofitable factories at a loss just to keep production up. This should still be putting inflationary pressure on the market, as material and labor markets should be heating up, but other factors might be pushing aggregate inflation down. For example, they might be building many billions of dollars worth of new condos while housing prices fall. Material and labor prices might be rising, but declining housing costs are pushing inflation into negative rates despite that. A free market economy would reduce construction in that case and the economy might slide into a recession while housing prices stabilize, but China could order SOEs and even private companies to keep building anyway. This would keep GDP growing, but would have other long and short term consequences.

[–] TheDemonBuer 1 points 1 day ago

That would be the possibility of concerning market distortions I mentioned earlier.

Well, that's the thing: what you see as "concerning market distortions," China sees as prudent planning and oversight of the economy. Which one of you is right? I suppose time will tell, but I think the real point is that if you try to analyze the Chinese economy as you would a free market, it's always going to look kind of confusing or odd, because it isn't a free market economy.