this post was submitted on 06 Jan 2025
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US envoy says Israeli army will withdraw completely from south Lebanon (www.aljazeera.com)
submitted 2 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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Author: Unknown
Published on: 06/01/2025 | 00:00:00

AI Summary:
Israel withdraws its forces from Naqoura in the western sector of the border. US official did not specify a timetable for the Israeli withdrawal. A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah stipulates that Israeli forces must leave Lebanon within 60 days, by January 26. Hezbollah started attacking Israeli military positions after the outbreak of the 15-month war on Gaza in a campaign it said was meant to pressure Israel to end its offensive against the besieged enclave. After nearly a year of low-level cross-border hostilities, Israel launched an all-out war in Lebanon, killing thousands of people. The Israeli army also claimed it had wiped out most of the group’s rocket arsenal.

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[–] Ksin 1 points 1 day ago

Even if Isreal acts in good faith on this I really don't see how this peace deal can possibly work.

The deal obligates the Lebanese Armed Forces(LAF) to take control of southern Lebanon and and maintain themselves as the sole(alongside UN forces) military presence in the area. But that would put the LAF in opposition with Hezbollah which just can't happen since it would reignite the Lebanese civil war. Like this whole thing is basically just a rerun of the 2006 Lebanon war which also ended with an agreement for the LAF to hold the area and for Hezbollah to leave, but since the LAF can't enforce that Hezbollah just resumed operations unopposed.

In my eyes at best we'll get a return to low level border skirmishing between IDF and Hezbollah for another decade, more likely Isreal will just re-invade and resume their occupation within the year, and potentially if the LAF actually does try to kick Hezbollah out of the south then Lebanon falls into bloody civil war.

Whichever way I slice it this deal doesn't solve anything.