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Conspiracies (lemmy.ml)

submitted 6 days ago by cm0002 to c/memes

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 6 days ago (2 children)

I don't get the middle statement. If you pick just one, the chance is 5%

[–] [email protected] 13 points 6 days ago

Looks like Big Math got to you

[–] zxqwas 3 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago)

If you pick one you're 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct.

You're 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct.

Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%.

Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.