this post was submitted on 18 Jul 2023
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Well, no. The app store will come preinstalled on all phones still, meaning as a developer it's in your interest to publish on the first-party store if you want as wide an audience as possible. It might be true that some apps will migrate away from the app store because of Apple's draconian and unresponsive review system, but that's really on them. I don't think most people will though.
It does also open up for things like Microsoft's Game Stream to get an official non-browser app, since Apple currently prohibits that from launching on the app store due to it not meeting their regulatory standards.
Feel like that's a bit comparing apples to oranges. Apps weren't originally acquired through some store on Macs, that's a fairly novel thing. There were package managers and such before that but you'd more or less always get software from the vendor. Disregarding that the original iPhones didn't have apps, as long as apps have been a thing they've always come from the app store.
Sure you can root it and get apps from Cydia and whatnot (if that's still around) but I really don't think many apps will migrate away, at least not fully. Users are lazy, and installing a separate app store or getting an app elsewhere is too much work for some. I don't think you and I fall into that category given the platform we're having this conversation on, but the fediverse is "too unapproachable" for a lot of people, even tech savvy ones, because you can't simply download an app and sign up.
I'm in favour of third party app stores (or just the ability to install apps through the browser, no store attached) simply because I'm miffed my Apple TV cannot run Xbox Game Stream.
Yeah the iPhone was definitely out a bit too early with aiming for webapps. Now the tools and APIs are really mature so webapps are more of an option, but back then? Goodness I dread to think.
I feel this, and it's in large parts why I chose to swap from Android to iOS when I got fed up with manually fixing my OnePlus One back in 2020. I spent 8 hours a day working with tech as it is, I don't want to spend my free-time tweaking Linux or flashing ROMs to my phone.
Time will tell how the third party app stores will turn out, if they turn out at all that is. Apple might still find a way to severely limit them, like restricting API access to apps not installed through the first party app store, or something similar.