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Are we going to see prediction markets enter mainstream journalism? Taylor Lorenz says yes (archive.md)

submitted 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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“If all of this sounds like a libertarian fever dream, I hear you. But as these markets rise, legacy media will continue to slide into irrelevance.”

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 5 days ago (1 children)

Journalists will also face ethical dilemmas as prediction markets are normalized. Should reporters participate in markets they cover?

sorry, what exactly is the dilemma here? how is it an ethical dilemma to have an unethical way to make money?

The rise of prediction markets raises questions about ethics and regulation. Current platforms are primed for market manipulation, insider trading, and the potential for bad actors to game the system. Platforms will need to enforce rigorous safeguards to maintain credibility and prevent misinformation from being incentivized.

lmaooooooo

[–] [email protected] 7 points 5 days ago (2 children)

sorry, what exactly is the dilemma here? how is it an ethical dilemma to have an unethical way to make money?

I'm guessing what's being said is that in this fictional scenario with an ethically neutral prediction market, you could do insider trading but with fake news? Like, you predict that they will find cheese on the moon, and then you make a story about cheese on the moon.

Either way, it is a moot point since prediction markets are bunk, ethically or otherwise.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 5 days ago (1 children)

there has to be difficulty determining what the most ethical choice is to have an "ethical dilemma." when the options are "do something unethical or don't" that's the opposite of an ethical dilemma!

[–] [email protected] 9 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

Oh yeah, haha. I often face the dilemma dilemma in which I have to choose between ignoring the 'incorrect" usage (i.e. not a choice between two things that are difficult to choose between) and seethe OR mention the correct usage and look like a pedant. Sometimes it's a trilemma, and I'm all over the shop. But more seriously, I usually let it slide and let people use it to mean "a situation".

I doubt that Lorenz has a dilemma in line with the correct usage. I couldn't fight the urge to steelman, spoilered below, which I suspect this is nothing near what Lorenz had in mind.

exhausting Steelman within. I only tried to come up with something, it's not a good steelman. I'm so sorry about this.

In the world that Lorenz posits, where prediction markets somehow represent accurate news reporting, either a journalist participates in the market whilst reporting news (conflict of interest), or they don't, and they are bad at their job (and not performing at your job is unethical, I guess?)

[–] [email protected] 3 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

Oh lol, isn’t this what Hindenburg Research and others are doing, except on the real market? Shorting some company’s stock and then publishing news stories about how bad things are gonna happen to them is a very fun grift…

Guess what I’m saying is, wonder if an FTC with fangs wouldn’t treat prediction markets as an as-yet unregulated securities exchange…