Futurology

Turmoil and transition seem to be mid 2020s themes, so maybe it's just getting harder to predict things, even with a short 1 year outlook.

• AI: AI agents working together to execute complex tasks will be a prominent theme. AI will advance its abilities on narrow tasks with narrow training data, but it's hallucination problem with generalist tasks will remain unsolved. The western world's two biggest economies, the EU & US, will diverge further on AI regulation, as the US becomes more deregulated. AI's unpopularity with the American public will likely grow.

• ROBOTICS: Thanks to AI advances, robotics made significant advances in 2024. There may be a 'breakout' consumer robot in 2025, perhaps a humanoid one. The roboticisation of global manufacturing will be a political topic.

• ECONOMY: Political turmoil in the US, or trade wars, may spark a recession or stock market downturn. The rapid expansion of robo-taxis in China could see protests from human taxi drivers. The global fossil fuel industry will turn to Trump's America to try to slow the inevitable transition to a decarbonized future. Creative industry job losses to AI will start to be considered significant.

• ENERGY: The global switch to renewables continues unabated. Chinese coal use may peak. Petroleum company BP expects peak oil demand in 2025 at 102 million barrels per day, though others predict peak demand will be later in the decade. Chinese manufacturers will debut sodium-ion batteries that will be seen as viable alternatives to lithium batteries. ICE car sales will decline in more countries as a growing number of people choose EVs.

• SPACE: If he can stay in favor long enough, Elon Musk may succeed in getting NASA downgraded at SpaceX's expense. Current space telescopes seem on the brink of fundamental discoveries in cosmology (dark matter/energy), and the search for alien life on exoplanets. Either topic could have a huge breakthrough in 2025. A Chinese company will successfully deploy a reusable rocket that will soon be in commercial service.

• HEALTH & MEDICINE: Fingers crossed the world avoids a H5N1-originated influenza pandemic. More countries will talk of government-funded mass availability of Ozempic type drugs. AI-Doctors will become more mainstream.

• POLITICS: We seem to be in a time of transition, as numerous features of the 'old' world are fading. Multipolar blocks strengthen. BRICS becomes stronger under Chinese leadership. The EU is forced to contemplate becoming a defense pact, as the US under Trump disengages from NATO. Trump's presidency is bad news for Ukraine, and the Palestinians, who will probably experience more vigorous attempts at ethnic cleansing.