this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Asklemmy
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Trump seems to always exceed expectations, so I fear he will almost certainly win unless a health condition forces him out of the race.
However, I have consistently under estimated Harris, so maybe I'll be wrong yet again and she will be the one to overperform...
Trump outperformed polling in both of the last elections, and the polls are much closer now, so if he even just outperforms the same amount as before he wins.
I think the polls have tried to correct for this, and I also believe Kamala has huge and sophisticated ground game operation aimed at turnout while Trump's team seems completely disorganized. So I wonder if that advantage in operational sophistication counts for anything.