I don't like the clickbait title at all -- Mastodon's clearly going to survive, at least for the forseeable future, and it wouldn't surprise me if it outlives Xitter.

Still, Mastodon is struggling; most of the people who checkd it out in the November 2022 surge (or the smaller June 2023 surge) didn't stick around, and numbers have been steadily declining for the last year. The author makes some good points, and some of the comments are excellent.

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[–] [email protected] 4 points 2 months ago

@ColonelThirtyTwo Sorta/mostly. The protocol has a bit of a different model then Activity Pub, and it's in development so there are some limitations, but it's been opened and there's people hosting their own PDSs now (the part of Bluesky that hosts your account).

To my knowledge there's only two AT relays (the part that aggregates content from PDSs), Bluesky itself and very recently frontpage (a link aggregator). That makes the network fairly centralized right now, although BlueSky/AT has made a lot of progress in the last 9 months in terms of opening up so I expect it'll be a lot less centralized this time next year. I'm also betting that somebody will make an AT client that pulls posts directly from PDSs instead of going through a relay at some point.