14 Jul | 13th stage | 138 km | Châtillon-sur-Chalaronne - Grand Colombier | Mountain | Live Tracker | Results
this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2023
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I feel this could go two ways, it will either be a great stage with lots of gc action or hardly anything happens, because they are saving themselves for the next 2 days. I don't think Pogacar can afford to save himself though. He has a fair chance of getting the boni seconds at the finish line which he should probably go for.
Not sure I agree that Pogacar needs time here, though I can very well imagine him taking some. I don't think the race will come down to ~4 seconds so I think the bonuses are a bit irrelevant.
I'm expecting Tadej and Jonas to take 1st and 2nd, but I don't think Jumbo Visma will chase a break today so there could easily be a surprise winner.
Not a bad prediction at all!
Thank you. I'm here all week.
4 seconds sure, but it's at least plausible if Pog wins the winning margin will be less than his bonus second advantage (which is already 21s despite Jonas being on his ass the whole time). He doesn't look able to crack Jonas in any serious way and if he can't he can only win by taking time/bonies in the finales.
It generally only takes one day though. I'm still mostly expecting one to crack the other and take a minute or more on one of the later stages.
If that doesn't happen then every second counts. But I don't think that is plan A.
Looks like this cost him stage 14. If he goes with a k or less from the top he gets a gap and keeps it on the descent I reckon,for maybe a 20s gain plus bonuses. As it was he got caught because he insisted on going for the knockout blow and actually lost time on the bonuses! A mistake IMO but maybe he knows something about the relative climbing form of the two that I don't. Three more big days to find out if either can make the decisive move!
Answer: yes.
And how. Kinda bummed it wasn't a more suspenseful end.