this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2024
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I get that building factories takes time, but I'm honestly wondering: Given that Russia right now is producing far more artillery shells than the rest of Europe (estimated ≈6x or something), which in turn produce more than the US, and NATO stockpiles are low due to donating to Ukraine: If Russia crosses the NATO border tomorrow, how quickly could Europe get its shell production up to say 3-5 million/year, which is what the current war makes it seem like we'll be needing? It honestly makes me a bit pessimistic to see that it takes us years to build a factory like this. I would like to hope that we're capable of building the tenfold of this in months if shit hits the fan...
Russia produces 2million 152mm and 122mm shells per year. Rheinmetall alone is at 700.000 155mm shells per year by 2025 alone. The difference is not that big, but many European countries are increasing stockpiles and there is a need to train their own militaries, which requires firing some of them.
However the number of shells matters much less then the enemies they destroy. NATO artillery is much much more precise. So they need one shell to hit a target, whereas Russia might need ten. The other big part is air power. NATO unlike Ukraine can destroy Russia air defence and then use a lot of bombs to create a break through in the line. This just can not be easiyl transfered to Ukraine, as training pilots and ground crews takes years.