Ukraine

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJPd29Sop-k

Day 994.

Today, we look at renewed Russian efforts to retake Kursk before Trump returns to the White House, consider the evidence Europe is responding to the threat of an American withdrawal, and assess potential new appointments in for the new government Washington. Then, later, we hear the euphoric memories of a Ukrainian officer who served in the historic Kharkiv counteroffensive.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

With special thanks to our guest, a Ukrainian officer we shall not name who served in the historic Kharkiv counteroffensive.

Content referenced:

Putin rushes to recapture Kursk from Ukrainians before Trump takes office (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/11/putin-kursk-assault-ukraine-trump-north-korea/

Donald Trump expected to nominate China hawk Marco Rubio for secretary of state (FT):

https://www.ft.com/content/5ec67430-7c68-4783-bf88-92c82e9d7f6f

Brussels to free up billions of euros for defence and security from EU budget (FT):

https://www.ft.com/content/eb0de7f4-5ba1-460a-a83d-1a7302fc1536

Russian forces damage Kurakhove Reservoir dam in Donetsk Oblast (Kyiv Independent)

https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-damage-dam-of-kurakhove-reservoir-in-donetsk-oblast-ukraine-says/?mc_cid=0e0eef55ad&mc_eid=08d0680a95

Starmer to demand Biden hands Ukraine missing $20bn before Trump takes over (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/11/keir-starmer-demand-biden-ukraine-20bn-before-trump-talks/

The debate over whether Ukraine should be allowed to fire Storm Shadow missiles, made by the UK and France, deep into Russian territory played out for months behind the scenes. The missiles require US technology to be fully effective.

Ukraine is understood to currently only be allowed to use the missiles in limited circumstances on Russian land, such as to hit troops just by the border - though the specifics of any agreements have never been made public.

Mr Zelensky has been calling for permission to fire the missiles further into Russia for months as it could help stop Russian planes taking off before bombing Ukraine.

Well-placed UK government sources said Sir Keir and Mr Macron had become supportive earlier this year.

Previous hopes Mr Biden would approve further use of the missiles were dashed in September over fears of retaliatory attacks on Western military bases.

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, was supportive but Mr Sullivan was against the move, fearing it would escalate the stand-off with Russia and further entangle America, according to the Foreign Office’s analysis of internal debates.

Should Kyiv be given permission to fire Storm Shadows deep into Russian territory before Mr Trump took office it would be more difficult for the approval to be reversed.

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcPOttZTtUQ

Day 993.

Today, after a weekend in which Ukrainian forces launched their largest ever drone attack on Moscow, and Russian losses in Ukraine reached a record daily high, we reflect on the Prague Defence Conference, with discussions centred heavily on President-elect Donald Trump.

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Venetia Rainey (Co-host Battle Lines podcast). @venetiarainey on X.

With thanks to Admiral Rob Bauer (Chair of the Military Committee NATO), Hanno Pevkur (Defence Minister of Estonia), and Lawrynas Kasčiunas (Defence Minister of Lithuania).

During the call, which Trump took from his resort in Florida, he advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe, said a person familiar with the call, who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

Peskov did not immediately respond to a request for comment. After this report was published, the Kremlin on Monday denied the call took place, with Peskov saying it was “completely untrue.”

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEz0xFDe9CY

Day 989.

Today, as the White House seeks to send Ukraine as much as it can before Trump’s inauguration, we discuss the potential appointments the president-elect might make, and – later – hear about the mood near the frontlines to the political earthquake.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Jonah Goldberg (Editor-in-Chief, The Dispatch). @JonahDispatch on X.

Adrian Simpson (of Mission Ukraine). AdrianSimp85802 on X.

Dr Claudia Major (German Institute of International and Security Affairs). @SWPBerlin on X.

Mission Ukraine

You can learn more about the volunteer organisation here:

https://www.missionukraine.uk/

Content Referenced:

Trump’s victory means Europe has no choice but to arm – and fast (Francis in The Telegraph)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/07/donald-trump-victory-europe-now-has-two-months-save-ukraine/

Biden team prepares to rush last-minute aid to Ukraine (Politico)

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/06/biden-trump-ukraine-assistance-00187897

Trump win casts fresh doubts over Wall Street's China strategy (Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/markets/trump-win-casts-fresh-doubts-over-wall-streets-china-strategy-2024-11-07/

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8lmiXCsAlw

Day 990.

Today, we consider the Trump peace plan reportedly being mooted by his staffers, hear live from another vital summit of European leaders, and discuss a ‘shopping list’ of weapons and permissions Western leaders could action over the next two months to support Ukraine. Later, following the missile damage to Kharkiv’s iconic Derzhprom building, we do a deeper dive into the impact of this war on Ukrainian heritage and architecture.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

James Crisp (Europe Editor). @JamesCrisp6 on X.

Michael Bohnert (Engineer & Researcher, RAND Corporation. @mbohnert on X.

With thanks to Ievgeniia Gubkina, Ukrainian architect, architectural and urban historian, and curator. @BartlettArchUCL on X.

Articles Referenced:

Trump mulls Ukraine peace plan: British troops patrolling an 800-mile buffer zone (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/07/donald-trump-ukraine-peace-plan-british-troops-buffer-zone/

Trump Promised to End the War in Ukraine. Now He Must Decide How (Wall Street Journal):

https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-presidency-ukraine-russia-war-plans-008655c0

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TmR3VHX27A

Day 988.

Today, as Ukraine hits a Russian naval base on the Caspian Sea and North Korean troops enter combat for the first time, we examine the fallout from the US presidential election and ask: is Donald Trump the best thing that’s ever happened to NATO?

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Adam Kinzinger (Former Republican Congressman, now senior political commentator at CNN) @AdamKinzinger on X.

Dr Dalibor Rohac (American Enterprise Institute Fellow & Eastern Europe expert) @DaliborRohac on X.

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TO4wGK4DzRM

Day 987.

Today, as Ukraine, and the world, waits with bated breath for the results of the US presidential election, we look at the situation on the battlefield as Moscow seeks to strengthen its foothold, and hear more about how ordinary Russians view the war.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

James Kilner (Moscow Desk). @jkjourno on X.

Content referenced:

'To Avoid Another Munich, Europe Must Act to Secure Ukraine' (100+ Experts' Letter):

https://www.democratic-strategy.net/_files/ugd/dcfff6_bc38b0fbac1b473bb5b0989446c08f67.pdf

China’s Xi Jinping poses as hunky Putin sidekick in FSB calendar (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/01/chinas-xi-jinping-poses-hunky-putins-sidekick-calendar/

Instruction manual for digging mass graves given to Russian troops (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/03/instruction-manual-digging-mass-graves-russian-troops/

Google Maps ‘reveals location’ of secret Ukrainian military positions (The Telegraph):

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/03/instruction-manual-digging-mass-graves-russian-troops/

Russia Suspected of Plotting to Send Incendiary Devices on U.S.-Bound Planes (Wall Street Journal)

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-plot-us-planes-incendiary-devices-de3b8c0a

Stolen Cheese! (BBC)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ygw9ye90po

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVHHeEzpgPY

Day 986.

Today, as Moldova resists alleged Russian meddling in Sunday's presidential vote, we report on how Russia is arming drones with thermobaric 'lung-busting' warheads, according to a leading Forensic Research Institute.

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Roland Oliphant (Senior Foreign Correspondent). @RolandOliphant on X.

Content Referenced:

Russia Deploys Deadly New Weapon in Drone Race With Ukraine (Newsweek)

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-drones-shahed-race-deadly-new-weapon-1979040

Notable targets include the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyiv Patriarchate, segments of the Crimean Tatar Muslim community, and various Protestant denominations, all branded as "undesirable" by the authorities.