Ukraine

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAL-_4JS2dU

Day 983.

Today, we discuss the North Korean general sent to lead troops in Ukraine, hear the latest from Georgia, and consider the impact of the First World War on Putin’s worldview, and how the treaty that ended the battles of the Eastern Front serves as a warning for today.

Contributors:

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Venetia Rainey (Co-host Battle Lines podcast). @venetiarainey on X.

Marika Mikiashvili (Analyst and Lecturer). @Mikiashvili_M on X.

Dr Thomas Clausen (Historian and Analyst). @DrThomasClausen on X.

Content Referenced:

Our sister podcast Battle Lines, which Venetia co-hosts:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/battle-lines/id1712903296

Ukraine’s frontline is ‘crumbling’ against Russian advances, says general (The Telegraph)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/30/ukraine-crumbling-russia-zelensky-victory-plan-kyiv/

North Korea’s new ICBM missile records longest flight time yet (The Telegraph)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/31/north-korea-new-icbm-missile-longest-flight-time/

Close ally of Kim Jong-un is leader of North Korean troops in Russia, says Ukraine (The Telegraph)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/31/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin-ukraine-pyongyang-troops-gen-kim/

South Korea weighs arming Ukraine after North Korean deployment (FT)

https://www.ft.com/content/e7ca9021-1321-46c8-9b0c-2009a4c0dd50

Mirror: https://archive.ph/5ewph

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2a5w1XbDLI

Day 982.

Today, further to updates on the front and in the political realms, we are joined by Danylo Mokryk, a war crime reporter, and Evan Williams, a multi-award winning producer and director, about their recent documentaries on the subject of war crimes. A warning: today's episode features graphic descriptions.

Contributors:

Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor of Defence). @DomNicholls on X.

Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.

Danylo Mokryk (Investigative Journalist, The Kyiv Independent). @DMokryk on X.

Evan Williams (Producer and Director). @evanwilliams_tv on X.

Content Referenced:

Danylo Mokryk's investigative documentary Shadows Across the River: https://kyivindependent.com/shadows-across-the-river/

Evan Williams's new film On The Cranes Call:

https://thecranescallfilm.com/

Ukraine and Russia in talks about halting strikes on energy plants (Financial Times)

https://www.ft.com/content/69a57022-aeed-4bfe-8ada-b2ccd38f162a

How Ukraine Can Defeat Russian Glide Bombs (RAND):

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/06/how-ukraine-can-defeat-russian-glide-bombs.html#:~:text=The%20most%20practical%20counter%20to,air%20capabilities%2C%20and%20electronic%20warfare.

The new face of European illiberalism (Financial Times):

https://www.ft.com/content/78f49467-1e2c-4c4f-9908-897ce8d5319d

Day 981.

Today, as Ukraine announces a mobilisation drive to get another 160 thousand people into uniform we report how Russia is continuing to use chemical substances on the frontline, and we hear live from a cyber security expert in Kyiv about how the unseen war online is progressing.

Contributors:

Dom Nichols (Associate Editor). @DomNicholls on X. Daryna Antoniuk. @daryna_antoniuk on X. Hamish de Bretton Gordon @HamishDBG on X.

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPhLnVDrmkI

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4s9ivtopTao

A Russian air force commander blamed for a lethal attack on a shopping centre in Ukraine has been found bludgeoned to death with a hammer.

Ukraine’s military intelligence said that it had assassinated Col Dmitry Golenkov, a senior officer in Russia’s 52nd heavy bomber regiment, with the “hammer of justice”.

Golenkov was said to be behind one of the most egregious attacks on a civilian target of the war. Images of a rocket striking the shopping centre, and its aftermath, were circulated widely.

Ukraine said on Monday: “A Russian Tu-22M3 pilot has been liquidated on the territory of the Russian Federation. His head was smashed with a hammer.”

The Tupolev Tu-22M3 is a modernised version of a Soviet-era long-range strategic bomber.

Golenkov’s body was found outside the village of Suponevo in the Bryansk region of Russia.

It was not clear how Ukraine carried out the killing, but Ukrainian special forces and partisans have been expanding operations inside occupied territory and Russia since the war began.

A video, shot at night, showed Golenkov’s body lying face down in shrubland, with his head covered in blood. He had been carrying a white plastic bag.

From his base in the neighbouring region of Kaluga, Golenkov ordered bombing missions to be flown over Ukraine.

One of his targets was the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk in June 2022, an attack that killed 22 people.

The shopping centre was full of shoppers on a Saturday afternoon at the time of the attack. Ukrainian officials said that there wasn’t a military target in the area.

Golenkov was also accused of being involved in a bombing raid in January 2023 against Dnipro in Ukraine that killed 46 people.

Ukraine’s military intelligence said that Golenkov had held the position of chief of staff of the aviation squadron, giving him an important planning role.

“He was involved in missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets,” it said.

The Russian ministry of defence has not commented.

Ukrainian military intelligence has developed a reputation for daring operations behind enemy lines and this is not the first time that it has claimed the assassination of Russian military personnel inside Russia.

In 2023, it used data from a fitness app to plan and execute the murder in Krasnodar of a Russian submarine captain who had fired missiles at Ukraine.

Dozens of collaborator officials in occupied parts of Ukraine have also been assassinated by Ukrainian agents.

In 2023, Ukraine’s military also planted a bomb inside a bust to kill a Russian military blogger at a street food café in St Petersburg.

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xEu6qQzfMdo

YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fnPRDMo-BQM

There is no evidence biological weapons have been used in Ukraine so far, something outlawed under international treaties.

However, the development of the facility, as well as the secrecy surrounding it, has raised concerns it could be a possibility in the future.

Russian officials have in recent weeks confirmed publicly that the Sergiev Posad-6 labs will be used to study deadly microbes, something they said was necessary to defend the country against bioterrorism and future pandemics.

US intelligence agencies and bioweapons experts are monitoring the development closely, The Post reported.

Russian forces are already using chemical weapons on the frontlines in Ukraine. In May, the US state department said it had evidence of the use of chloropicrin, a powerful irritant more toxic than chlorine that damages the lungs, as well as riot control agents.

The use of both substances violates the Chemical Weapons Convention, a multilateral treaty that bans chemical weapons and to which Russia is a signatory.

"If the illegal military cooperation between North Korea and Russia continues, (South Korea) will not stand by but respond firmly in collaboration with the international community," Kim said, warning of "phased measures" in response to the level of their military ties.

Among the possible scenarios include sending weapons [to Ukraine] for defense and attack, a senior presidential official told reporters.