forecasting

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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: [email protected]

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

founded 1 year ago
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listing: all - local
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Mantic Monday: Judgment Day (www.astralcodexten.com)
submitted 2 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’ (www.wsj.com)
submitted 3 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
1 comments fedilink
 
 

archived.

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5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internet (news.polymarket.com)
submitted 4 days ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Samotsvety probabilities for potential precursors of existential risk (samotsvety.org)
submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters? It looks like not yet (tellingthefuture.substack.com)
submitted 3 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
1 comments fedilink
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2024 Electoral Consequences (www.metaculus.com)
submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Mantic Monday 9/16/24 (www.astralcodexten.com)
submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Coalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contracts (comments.cftc.gov)
submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
 
 

Direct link to the pdf maybe.

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The twists of the election in Venezuela (x.com)
submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Kalshi wins lawsuit against CFTC (www.mikesblog.net)
submitted 2 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news (www.axios.com)
submitted 3 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
1 comments fedilink
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Forecasting is mostly vibes. So is expertise (nathanpmyoung.substack.com)
submitted 3 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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You don’t need to worry about which distribution to use any more (riskacademy.blog)
submitted 3 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Student loan forecasts for England, Financial year 2023-24 (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)
submitted 3 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Interactive Brokers (IBKR) arm unveils forecast contracts (www.nasdaq.com)
submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Swift Centre’s UK General Election Forecasts (swiftcentre.substack.com)
submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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How the Economist's presidential prediction model works (www.economist.com)
submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Why the Future Belongs to Prediction Markets (www.wespeakfreely.org)
submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Open Sourcing Metaculus (www.metaculus.com)
submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Decoding SCOTUS: Navigating Media Bias in Supreme Court Forecasting (goodjudgment.substack.com)
submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Manifold Creator Partner Program (news.manifold.markets)
submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
1 comments fedilink
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Higher-Order Forecasts (quantifieduncertainty.org)
submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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Why prediction markets aren’t popular (worksinprogress.co)
submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
1 comments fedilink
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Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Vitalik Buterin Back $45M Investment in Polymarket (www.coindesk.com)
submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
 
 

There is a also a tweet thread by the PolyMarket CEO.

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Mantic Monday 5/13/24 (www.astralcodexten.com)
submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
0 comments fedilink
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