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China's latest economic policy change towards consumption led growth. (www.foreignaffairs.com)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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An interesting long read on China policy change. To quote the point:

But a great leader needs a great policy, and in Xi’s China there is always a new one. In December 2022, the government announced the less flashy but more reassuring “consumption-led growth”—the centerpiece policy of an ambitious new 12-year economic plan. For the first time in modern Chinese history, the country’s planners would prioritize “expanding household consumption” over “effective investment” as a long-term strategy. In practical terms, China’s growth would now be driven mainly by household spending decisions and not by the state directing or subsidizing companies to build and produce according to diktat.

Almost universally, economists have praised consumption-led growth. Indeed, if carried out properly, this policy shift would help China avoid the dreaded middle-income trap—a phenomenon in which declining productivity and falling investment returns in developing nations lead to stagnating living standards.

Sensible though it is, consumption-led growth in Xi’s China is doomed to fail. As Xi has done so often in the past, he will back away from the policy once the inevitable backlash from powerful constituencies, including state-owned enterprises, local governments, and the national security bureaucracy, takes hold. The Chinese people, knowing that the leader will bury the initiative at the first signs of worry from the party, will be reluctant to embrace it. Instead, they will hunker down, saving—in a country with the highest savings rate on earth—yet more of their meager earnings for the expected hard times ahead.

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[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

The Party won't let go of the Party's wealth. They didn't even help out people during COVID lockdowns with money. They'll give some vouchers and that's it