• Natural gas by far represents the largest segment of energy demand growth in the Middle East and North Africa region over the course of the current decade, driven significantly by rapid increases in electricity demand growth that are likely to be met by gas-fired generation sources.
• The fact that many of the region’s largest economies, mostly located in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), are major oil and gas supporters will continue to underpin demand growth in the region to the end of the decade, especially with the development of new resources, particularly unconventional gas assets.
• Renewable energy growth will also gain considerable momentum, but most new capacity will likely be added in countries where the renewable energy sector is approaching a greater degree of maturity. Countries with little to no renewable capacity have generally experienced difficulty advancing renewable power initiatives and projects.
• The development of a regional green hydrogen sector represents a significant variable in the growth of renewable power capacity. While it is central to the green hydrogen production process, only one major final investment decision (FID) has taken place on a green hydrogen project, and prospects for the development of a global clean hydrogen market (which would be needed to underpin these investments) remain highly uncertain.
• North Africa will account for some of the largest growth in demand by sub-region, but it will likely face increasing supply constraints as efforts to develop domestic supplies, both in the form of natural gas and renewables, have either produced disappointing results or been outpaced by demand growth.
• While population growth is likely to be a key demand driver across the region, a variety of factors, including economic growth, population trends, and government policies, influence the trajectory of energy demand in each country.