Collapse

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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.

Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.

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Rapid shift in methane carbon isotopes suggests microbial emissions drove record high atmospheric methane growth in 2020–2022 (www.pnas.org)

submitted 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Abstract

The growth rate of the atmospheric abundance of methane (CH4) reached a record high of 15.4 ppb yr−1 between 2020 and 2022, but the mechanisms driving the accelerated CH4 growth have so far been unclear. In this work, we use measurements of the 13C:12C ratio of CH4 (expressed as δ13CCH4) from NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network and a box model to investigate potential drivers for the rapid CH4 growth. These measurements show that the record-high CH4 growth in 2020–2022 was accompanied by a sharp decline in δ13CCH4, indicating that the increase in CH4 abundance was mainly driven by increased emissions from microbial sources such as wetlands, waste, and agriculture. We use our box model to reject increasing fossil fuel emissions or decreasing hydroxyl radical sink as the dominant driver for increasing global methane abundance.

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

I'm guessing it's largely coming from wetland changes. I think I saw a few related studies earlier in the year.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (1 children)

Really interesting stuff. Going to give a close read for insight into what is driving the microbes to act this way.

Edit: "Atmospheric δ13CCH4 does not allow us to differentiate between anthropogenic microbial sources (livestock, landfills) and natural ones (wetlands), so further study is necessary to investigate the potential climate feedback hypothesis".

So, their simulations suggest its the microbes, but without more study we don't know if it's us causing it directly or natural sources (and they can't rule out anthropogenic influences on natural sources either). So, don't let anyone tell you this proves humans aren't driving climate change or methane emissions, because that's not what it says.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago

Since climate change is driving permafrost to melt, doesn't that mean that even wasteland methan is to a certain degree anthropogenetic?