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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaac, located several hundred miles northwest of the Azores, and on Tropical Storm Joyce, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.
- Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Recent satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles west- southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early this week, possibly as soon as tonight. The low will continue to move westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
- Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
- Eastern Atlantic: A low-latitude tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
Forecaster Blake/Mahoney