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Yeah, I agree that's probably how this is going to play out; Ukraine cedes some territory to Russia and is allowed to join NATO, hopefully safeguarding it against further Russian imperialism in the future.
In the meantime, we should of course keep supporting Ukraine as much as we can to give them as strong of a position in these potential future negotiations as possible.
As long as Russia retains even a toehold in Ukraine, NATO'll say conflict is not resolved, so can't talk of membership. Even in the Vilnius meeting, NATO did not even promise to start negotiations as soon as the war is over, They just said "Ukraine will become a member of NATO" which is just showing a carrot at the end of a long stick to keep the donkey moving. They have no intention to end the war. Just prolong it or freeze the conflict. Prolonging the conflict will give Putin to regain some strength, so they'll just use Ukraine to bleed Russia continuously but slowly.
There is no minimizing how self-servng and cowardly NATO is being at the cost of Ukrainian lives.
Membership can come quickly: Finland became a member rather swiftly. I figure most members would want the war the end as soon as possible because it's a moneydrain. European members are not eager to prolong a war just outside their borders.
The situation is different for the US of course. I don't agree with you on Russia: A prolonged war is in the best interest of the US as it weakens Russia over time. Their current economy and sanctions don't allow a long-term "military operation". Furthermore China can't rely on a weak ally if shit hits the fan in Taiwan. Ukraine is also a prime example on how willing the US is to support allies in a long-term proxy war.