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Apple Weather's forecasts are so bad my meteorologist made a post about it (spacecityweather.com)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/apple_enthusiast

33 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Apple Weather forecasts for my area have shown a 30-50% chance of precipitation for eternity, even when there isn't a cloud in sight. My meteorologist has told his readers to ignore Apple's forecasts.

This started around the time the Apple Weather outages a few months ago and haven't improved. YSK that you can report inaccurate forecasts from within the app, but it hasn't improved for me.

I'm currently using Foreca on iPhone and the free version of Carrot on Apple Watch.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

How can Apple got this wrong? Pretty much all meteorological data are sourced from the same set of weather forecasting data produced from running weather simulations on weather agencies supercomputers using satellites and ground observation data. The forecasting models will pretty much produce almost similar results when fed with the same data, which is why weather reports are usually pretty similar even though they're produced by different weather agencies.

Does Apple actually run their own weather simulations here? Probably for their hyper local next-hour weather prediction feature? Or could it be that Apple is using some "AI" for their weather forecasting and the AI conjured some number out of its ass instead of running full physics simulation?

[–] abhibeckert 6 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

The different models definitely do not produce the same output and some weather conditions are extremely difficult to predict with any accuracy (especially rain). Even the "current" conditions are often very different depending on the model since they rarely use actual observations... and even if they did the next city block over could be totally different).

Which one is the most accurate depends on your location (in particular, your latitude, proximity to the ocean, nearby mountains, etc).

Even little things like standing near (not even under) a tree can drastically alter your air temperature - because trees raise the humidity of the air around them and a slight humidity change has a drastic effect on temperature.