this post was submitted on 17 Jun 2024
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I'd say this is a big blow, but it's quite obvious those AA systems are actually kinda shit.
It is huge, they aren't shit by any stretch. They can be defeated through tactics and technology, just like western defense systems. If there is an expectation of operating F-16 and Mirage 2000 in the combat area, these air defences need to be degraded. A SCALP missile streaking along at 75M altitude, supported by MALD electronic decoys, under the cover of 20-30 drones, with a few Neptune cruise missiles to soak up interceptors is far more likely to defeat an S-400 battery than a two-ship of F-16 operating within 80km of the front.
According to Ukraine, and the video made available online, (at least some of) the strikes were done with "at least 10" M39 Atacms missiles, not cruise missiles or massed decoys. The submunition explosions from the Atacms are pretty distinct.
Which makes this doubly hilarious, because that's the exact kind system that s-400 has been said to completely defeat. And they did it twice at the same site, and many more times elsewhere.
Edit: looking at the sites, probably at least some were attacked with cruise missiles, since they're far outside ATACMS range.