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Mark Kelly now heavy favorite to be Harris’ running mate as he blasts JD Vance on Ukraine (www.independent.co.uk)

submitted 4 months ago by [email protected] to c/news

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[–] [email protected] 137 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (4 children)

Source: a gambling website aggregator lol

Still, according to electionbettingodds.com, which averages online betting sites, Kelly has a 34.9 percent chance of being the presumptive nominee’s vice-presidential pick.

Also according to that site, Kamala Harris has 0.8% odds to be Kamala Harris’s VP, slightly edging out Gavin Newsome.

[–] [email protected] 103 points 4 months ago (3 children)

Also according to that site, Kamala Harris has 0.8% odds to be Kamala Harris’s VP

[–] [email protected] 27 points 4 months ago (2 children)

I'm surprised Trump hasn't thought of that and gone solo

[–] dogsnest 6 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I'm thankful he thinks lemmy is a character on King of the Southpark, or some show like that, or he might get ideas.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 4 months ago (1 children)

You think he gets ideas?

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[–] [email protected] 13 points 4 months ago

It's very hard for an established prediction market to go all the way to either 0% or 100%. There'll always be someone who bought in earlier on the losing side and isn't bothering to cash out for the handful of pennies they might be able to theoretically get back now because it there's nobody who's actually buying.

[–] bandwidthcrisis 6 points 4 months ago

https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/twins.png

[–] [email protected] 28 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

They predict trump's chances to win the election to be 59.7%, harris is at 37%.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

[–] [email protected] 10 points 4 months ago (1 children)

That honestly sounds right for right now. Harris has momentum but Trump is still leading in polls. I think it reflects the uncertainty of whether Harris will be able to capitalize on being the only candidate that doesn't wear diapers and has a properly functioning brain.

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[–] FlyingSquid 11 points 4 months ago

slightly edging out Gavin Newsome.

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[–] [email protected] 82 points 4 months ago (6 children)

The Harris campaign is still vetting candidates and has not made its pick yet. Still, according to electionbettingodds.com, which averages online betting sites, Kelly has a 34.9 percent chance of being the presumptive nominee’s vice-presidential pick.

Jfc. Taking the odds from an aggregate of betting websites and using that as a verified source seems crazy to me.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 4 months ago (2 children)

I mean, it's the closest thing you have to a futures market, and if you assume that markets are efficient, you can extract information there -- people do use those.

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[–] [email protected] 62 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

Arizona is not a solidly blue state, and Mark Kelly is unusually popular for a senator.

Arizona Democrats also don't have that deep of a bench to pull out a candidate that's a lock for a statewide race.

I'm not saying it's impossible for any Democrat to win the election for Mark Kelly's seat, I am saying it's a significant risk that they probably won't want to take.

And that's before taking into account that Arizona Democrats already have a handful with the seat being left open by their current manic pixie dream senator.

[–] [email protected] 36 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

Kelly's seat would go to a Dem replacement. They wouldn't have to run for reelection until 2026 in a special election. The seat would be safe for at least 2 years out. Arguably a gamble worth taking to make sure we still have elections come 2026.

[–] caffinatedone 12 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Assuming Harris wins, the first midterm federal election is usually ugly for the president's party, so it'd be a risk. Especially coming off of this election where dems will have to be extremely lucky just to hold onto the majority (even with the vp tiebreaker).

[–] [email protected] 12 points 4 months ago (1 children)

If Trump wins much of that is irrelevant by 2026 anyway though.

[–] caffinatedone 6 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Of course, but I don't think that him as the VP candidate changes the odds of that much relative to the other contenders who don't come with that risk.

VP candidates don't usually matter much in an election unless they're freaks with a couch fetish or something weird like that.

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[–] 58008 55 points 4 months ago (2 children)

A 60-year-old? Running alongside a 59-year-old?? What is this, a fuckin' crèche? Their mother's milk is still wet on their faces! How can they compete against a worldly wisdom-haemorrhaging wise man in his 80s like Trump when they're barely out of their baby diapers, while Trump is already well into his adult diapers phase?

Jesus, go back to your pogo sticks and bubblegum and stickerbooks and let a grown-up have a shot. Sheesh.

[–] PriorityMotif 6 points 4 months ago

I hope that age in politics snaps back hard in the coming years. As I get older I'm really getting sick of old people

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[–] cybervseas 33 points 4 months ago (2 children)

I know it's not about identity politics, but lady prez and spaceman veep? Yes please!

[–] gAlienLifeform 20 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Nah, we shouldn't be rewarding anyone who worked with Joe Manchin to attack the environment - https://web.archive.org/web/20240710182356/https://www.eenews.net/articles/manchin-kelly-urge-biden-to-open-new-gulf-oil-leasing/

Out of all the likely names I've seen, NC governor Roy Cooper seems like the strongest

[–] Maggoty 11 points 4 months ago

Yeah that's not the attack on the environment you say it is. He was looking for a mid term patch on supply chain greedflation and the crimp from banning Russian oil. Long term he's all in on wind and solar. He's been very open about this. Painting him as someone like Manchin who's heavily financially invested in fossil fuels is just disingenuous.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago

Lady Prez and Spaceman Veep '24

I've never put out a yard sign in my life, but if Astronaut Mark Kelly is chosen, I'll happily stake that one out front.

[–] leadore 17 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Without knowing more specific + or - details about the possible choices, I'd pick Shapiro over Kelly when you add up all the variables:

As a governor Shapiro has executive experience, which Kelly doesn't. Cooper is also a governor but is already 67.
Pennsylvania is an absolute must-win state. Arizona is also very important but is not a must-win. Gotta get PA.
Shapiro is only 51 so would still be plenty young enough in 8 years to run for POTUS.
With Shapiro you're not taking a current Senator off the field like with Kelly. Yes the Dem gov will appoint another Dem but will that person (or other Dem) be able to win again in 2 years vs. keeping Kelly in place who is highly likely to be re-elected. We really need to build up a bigger majority in the Senate over the next couple of cycles to be able to get important things done.

[–] Maggoty 13 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Well as of right now the Democrats have a solid lock on state wide elections. If they're going to do it, now is the time. A 2 year incumbent that doesn't leave the party is highly likely to get reelected.

Shapiro's also got some baggage, his Israel position for example. Kelly however will be vulnerable to a swift boat attack. However as VP that will have less impact than as a candidate. Whereas the Israel issue will cause some of the left to stay home.

It's all really complicated, I'm sure they're putting a lot of thought into it.

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[–] [email protected] 17 points 4 months ago (1 children)

JD Vance can suck my dick

Suck my dick

JD Vance can suck my dick

All the livelong daaaaay

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[–] ralphio 17 points 4 months ago (1 children)

So in the scenario that he is the VP and they win, a democrat would be appointed to the senate, but instead of the seat being up in 2028 in a presidental general election year the seat would be up in an off election year with a democratic president (2026). I'm not sure this is wise in terms of keeping the senate.

https://www.azleg.gov/ars/16/00222.htm

[–] [email protected] 5 points 4 months ago

I'm thinking about it like this.

Trump wins 2024 - the possibility of no 2026 elections is not insignificant.

Harris/Kelly win 2024 - Moderate risk the Dems lose 1 Senate seat in 2026.

If Kelly being on board helps Harris win swing states I think it's worth it. I'd take the potential risk of a hostile Senate in the future over the impending risk of fascism in a few months.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 4 months ago

Heavy favorite = 65% chance it will not be him.

[–] Shaft 15 points 4 months ago

MARK KELLY SLAMS JD VANCE FOR SAYING THE QUIET PART LOUD

[–] [email protected] 8 points 4 months ago

Really need to win Arizona.

[–] laverabe 6 points 4 months ago (11 children)

Why not AOC? Really need some young blood and someone who is progressive. She also meets constitutional age requirements now.

[–] [email protected] 30 points 4 months ago (2 children)

I don't think the country as a whole has made that much progress yet. She'll probably have to choose a white guy unfortunately

[–] FuglyDuck 7 points 4 months ago

Yeah. It saddened and annoyed me seeing that article “can Harris rebuild Obama’s coalition?”- like. Uhm. No? What’s past is gone and can never truly rebuilt. Yes, the ship of Theseus is a new ship. And this is the Ship of Harris, anyway.

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[–] [email protected] 9 points 4 months ago

Just like Obama needed Biden. Harris also needs a white guy to appeal to (sub)conscious biases. DNC will probably push her towards a moderate so unlikely to be someone like AOC. We'll see.

[–] FuglyDuck 8 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I’d love AoC for pres, and consolation prize of VP. (Don’t tell the corpo dems this but the VP job is usually a political dead end…)

The reality is you need to pick VPs defensively. Some one who makes a good presidential candidate generally doesn’t make a good VP candidate.

As much as I like AoC… I don’t mind Kelly.

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