this post was submitted on 08 May 2024
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Washington’s criticism is misplaced: attacks on oil refineries will not have the effect on global energy markets that U.S. officials fear. These s​trikes reduce Russia’s ability to turn its oil into usable products; they do not affect the volume of oil it can extract or export. In fact, with less domestic refining capacity, Russia will be forced to export more of its crude oil, not less, pushing global prices down rather than up. Indeed, Russian firms have already started selling more unrefined oil overseas. As long as they remain restricted to Russian refineries, the attacks are unlikely to raise the price of oil for Western consumers.

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[–] MrVilliam 15 points 6 months ago (1 children)

You're asking so many questions that it's borderline gish gallop. I'll just focus on one:

If we are not willing to go all the way, what are we even doing in Ukraine?

This is likely why you're getting down votes. You're making two false assumptions with this question that seems to sorta sum up your whole point: first that Russia is willing to sacrifice everything and second that it would take us sacrificing everything in kind to push them back. Russia is running low on war machine fodder and is now resorting to tricking people into coming to Russia for economic opportunity only to be thrown to the frontlines. To my knowledge, no Americans are fighting in Ukraine. It's also worth noting that America is not the only country who should or is doing anything to help Ukraine; pretty much all of Western Europe is on board, and that's good news because it'd be pretty fucking dumb to ignore a raging fire next door when your house is mighty flammable; if Russia takes Ukraine, they won't just stop there.

At the end of the day, yeah I could see this escalating to a direct war with Russia, and I have very few concerns about that. I don't think that what we're doing is so little that we might as well do nothing and watch Ukraine fall. That's the most defeatist, futile, pointless exercise of a thought experiment I can imagine. That's like deciding to never eat again just because you didn't have time to eat breakfast this morning.